MLB Monday parlay at mega +756 odds today 6/19 | Pickswise
We’re into another week of baseball as a small, yet juicy Monday slate of baseball is upon us. I have looked through today’s MLB Games and found 3 picks that combine for a +756 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s Games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Monday.
Tigers ML (-146)
Red Sox-Twins Alternate Under 7.5 (+100)
Diamondbacks-Brewers Alternate Under 6.5 (+154)
Parlay odds: +756
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Detroit Tigers ML (-146) over Kansas City Royals
This pick is fairly simple – the Royals are 0-14 when Jordan Lyles starts. Lyles has a 6.89 ERA and a 1.26 ERA in 79.2 innings, and more importantly, Kansas City has lost every single game in which Lyles has taken the mound. He is one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and it’s even worse when he’s on the road. His ERA jumps to 9.10 and his WHIP balloons to 1.53, so he’s not exactly who the Royals want to have pitch in Detroit today. Although the Tigers don’t have the most prolific offense, they are more than capable of scoring against one of the worst starters in the game.
For this wager, I’m more fading Lyles than backing the Tigers. Detroit will be starting Reese Olson, Detroit’s #11 overall prospect and a new member of the rotation. He’s appeared in 3 games and had 2 excellent outings before one poor outing that ruined his ERA. That poor outing came against the Braves, who are arguably the best offense in baseball, so I’m not too worried about that start. The Kansas City lineup is far different than Atlanta’s, so I’m expecting an outing more like his first few. I have to back the trend and take the Royals to lose with Lyles on the hill again.
Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Under 7.5 (+100)
This is one of the best pitching matchups on the docket today. James Paxton will take the hill for the visitors, and Pablo Lopez will toe the rubber for the Twins, and this immediately signaled a low-scoring affair to me. In his first full season since 2019, Paxton has a 3.07 ERA paired with a 3.34 xERA and a spectacular 33.1% strikeout rate. His control has been great, he hasn’t giving up too many extra-base hits, and his xBA sits at an impressive .211. In the southpaw’s 6 starts, he’s allowed 2 earned runs on less in 5 of the outings. His 2 starts in June have been spectacular as he’s surrendered just 2 earned runs and 10 hits while racking up 17 strikeouts in 13 innings. In short, the Big Maple is back.
The Twins’ rotation might be the most dangerous in the sport. Between Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Pablo Lopez, there’s no weak link. Lopez will be Monday night’s starter, and the right-hander has a 4.27 ERA paired with a 3.17 xERA in 14 starts. Although his ERA is north of 4, which isn’t great, his xBA sits at just .213, and his strikeout rate is up to a career-high 29.2%. Lopez’s advanced metrics indicate that he’s had an excellent season and is due for even more positive regression in the future, so matched up against Paxton, I’m expecting a very low-scoring game.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Under 6.5 (+154)
Remember how I said the Red Sox and Twins pitching matchup is one of the best of the day? Well, this game is the best. Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks will face off against Corbin Burnes of the Brewers, and I’m expecting runs to be extremely scarce. Kelly on the road is one spot that I’ve been very keen on this season because it’s been quite profitable. In 6 starts on the road, Kelly is 5-0 with a 2.12 ERA and has limited hitters to just a .224 batting average and a .574 OPS. Being away from Chase Field has allowed Kelly to be at his best, and he will take on a Brewers offense that hasn’t been the most reliable unit – especially against right-handed pitching.
Corbin Burnes had a really rough start to the season. Maybe it was due to the strained relationship with the Milwaukee front office in spring training or just not being prepared, but he just wasn’t the Burnes we were used to seeing. However, the Milwaukee ace has completely turned it around in recent weeks and has a 3.44 ERA paired with a 3.34 xERA in 83.2 innings. He’s gone 6 innings or more in 8 of his last 9 starts and has allowed more than 3 earned runs just once in that span – that’s the Burnes we’re used to seeing. The total for this series opener is already quite low, but between a pair of excellent starters, I think there’s value in taking an alternate under.
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