76ers vs Raptors Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA

Lower. No, lower. Still, lower. That may be the early-season theme for the Toronto Raptors: this roster of lengthy defenders is producing exactly what was expected from it, great defensive showings and rough offensive looks.

Coming off a collapse of an overtime loss to the Chicago Bulls last night, another grind should be expected, even with the Philadelphia 76ers and defending MVP Joel Embiid coming to town. How low can NBA odds go before the total is too low?

Let’s ponder that question in my free NBA picks for the 76ers vs. Raptors on October 28

76ers vs Raptors odds

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76ers vs Raptors predictions

Sometimes a handicap feels so obvious, that significant time must be spent finding a reason to ponder the other side. A gambler’s devil’s advocate, if you will.

Such an argument today may suggest defense requires effort, and the second night of a back-to-back is never a great time for effort — certainly not when it is the third game in four nights.

But know what else is hampered by tired legs? Jump shots and transition buckets.

The gambler’s devil’s advocate may think the Philadelphia 76ers hung 117 on the Bucks earlier this week, perhaps strong enough offensively to push toward the Over tonight all on their own... especially with a total of 216.5.

But Philadelphia needed to shoot 45.7% from beyond the arc to put up that kind of number, including 5-for-6 from Kelly Oubre Jr. and 3-for-3 from Tobias Harris. Spoiler alert: Oubre and Harris will almost certainly not combine to go 8 of 9 from three again this season, only a bold statement because there are 81 games left on the 76ers’ schedule.

The gambler’s devil’s advocate could point out the Toronto Raptors went 14 of 35 from deep in its season opener (40%) and the biggest reason the Raptors slipped by the Timberwolves. And yet, even with that shooting efficiency, Toronto failed to eclipse 100 points.

This roster was put together to hound defensively, and it has with the first two Games going Under their totals by 29.5 and 30 points, respectively, if ignoring Friday’s overtime. And no, not even five extra minutes in Chicago could push the Game past 216 points.

This is going to be a theme for the start of the season. Sportsbooks will need a moment to catch up to the Raptors’ approach, as will opponents.

This may feel obvious, but that isn't a good enough reason to ignore it. The gambler’s devil’s advocate is simply wrong.

Here's one more reason to lean into fading points in Toronto games: The Raptors have shot 65.9% from the free-throw line in their first two games, a number that should go up with time but for now is simply one more piece of evidence of Toronto leaving points on the floor.

My best bet: Under 216.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

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76ers vs Raptors same-game parlay

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Under 216.5

Harris Under 13.5 pts

Raptors TT Under 106.5 pts

+300 at PointsBet

Joel Embiid is going to get his. As long as Toronto is — Jakob Poeltl and Pascal Siakam both notably having 7-foot-3 wingspans — it does not have the size to contend with Embiid. He stands four inches taller than Siakam and outweighs each by 50 pounds. That size will assure Embiid points.

Philadelphia point guard Tyrese Maxey, may be too energetic to be fully hemmed in by the Raptors defense, especially if those weary legs show up after 53 minutes at Chicago last night.

But Tobias Harris is neither quick enough nor consistent enough to break loose tonight. Betting the Under on Harris’s points prop provides plus-money value, escalating this same-game parlay.

As for the Raptors team total Under, the gambler’s devil’s advocate has no reasoning for taking that alternative on the third game in four nights, the second night of a back-to-back, against a team defensively-minded aside from the Embiid-Maxey duo.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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76ers vs Raptors and Over/Under analysis

Before Toronto tipped off at Chicago, this number was available with Philadelphia favored by three. Afterward, it ticked up to -4 and -4.5.

Some of that ties to the added five minutes of fatigue and some of it ties to how the Raptors lost. Blowing a 17-point lead with five minutes to go may take more than 20 hours to forget.

The total had been available at 218 and after seeing the Toronto defense flex again, it fell to 216 and 216.5, depending on your book. Shooting 9 of 36 from three may have been the primary reason the Raptors fell, a fitting reality after the threes boosted Toronto to a season-opening win, but there is no genuine assurance Philadelphia will allow a better rate tonight.

While the 76ers ranked last in the league in 3-point percentage against last year, at 38.7%, they also ranked No. 15 in 3-pointers attempted against per game, creating a somewhat reasonable defense from beyond the arc. Continuing that tonight should help suppress this total, no matter how many points Embiid puts up.

76ers vs Raptors betting trend to know

The underdog covered the spread in three of these teams’ four matchups last season. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Raptors.

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76ers vs Raptors game info

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date: Saturday, October 28, 2023
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Sportsnet One
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