Best NBA Player Props Today - December 29
While the Top-3 in both conferences have begun to separate themselves from the rest of the pack, the competition to guarantee a playoff berth is heating up league-wide.
Even games whose NBA odds might have seemed inconsequential a week ago could now prove critical to future seeding. It just so happens that we’re zeroing in on a few of them on Friday, December 29 as I provide my three favorite NBA player props for today’s NBA slate.
Best NBA player props today
- Jalen Brunson Over 5.5 assists (+120 at bet365)
- Trae Young Over 28.5 points (-115 at bet365)
- Devin Booker Under 1.5 threes (+145 at bet365)
Picks made on December 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for December 29
Prop bet #1: Brunson’s balance
The New York Knicks and Orlando Magic are two of a group of second-tier East teams plausibly fighting for the fourth seed. That makes every game they play against each other this season incredibly important for playoff purposes, and when the Knicks have needed a big game this season, time and time again, it has been the Lilliputian from New Jersey that has delivered: Jalen Brunson.
Brunson’s strength is the foundation of his game, that and his elite footwork and pivot moves that put even the best low-post scorers to shame. But it’s the threat of the 3-ball that has changed everything for him.
Opposing teams can’t go under on Brunson now. He routinely punishes the few that do until they’re forced to change coverages.
Brunson uses that renewed gravity to touch paint on just about every drive, from there it’s an easy matter of finding a cutter, and he has particularly excellent chemistry with former fellow Villanova Wildcats Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo.
Those two always know when Brunson is at the exact moment commanding the attention of two players and he finds them either in the corner or cutting to the basket out of the dunker spot. He’s also getting better at making the hit-ahead pass and getting a couple of assists, finding RJ Barrett in transition has also become a staple.
The Magic defense is going to be keyed on Brunson. He’s the biggest threat and their best defenders are suited to match up with him. But Jalen welcomes that kind of pressure and physicality and dishes it right back. It won’t rattle him, but he will likely look to dish rather than swish on balance.
Brunson has had seven or more assists in six of his last 10 Games. At this price, these Jalen Brunson odds are too good to ignore.
Jalen Brunson prop: Over 5.5 assists (+120 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Trae’s talent
Trae Young has been in the middle of a scoring rampage, but it hasn’t been a national topic of conversation because the Atlanta Hawks are still mired in losing.
He’s been metronomic in his consistency. Young has scored 30 or more in eight of his last 10 games, and yet his scoring prop declined two points following his first struggle in a week on December 26, when he managed just 21.
That misstep came against Alex Caruso and a suddenly elite Chicago Bulls defense. Trae’s opponents on Friday, the Sacramento Kings, are one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
Despite forcing opponents to take all the right shots, teams just consistently shoot at an outrageous level against the Kings from just about every spot on the court. Mike Brown’s defensive scheme seems to work, it’s just the personnel that are fundamentally flawed.
Domantas Sabonis is not a strong rim protector, and while De’Aaron Fox has made strides, he’s not an every-play guy guarding the ball either. Kevin Huerter is vulnerable to attack as well. Keegan Murray is probably rounding into their best defender, but he’s a four and won’t have any iNFLuence on Trae’s performance.
Against a team that likes to get into shootouts, I think these Trae Young odds are far too low.
Trae Young prop: Over 28.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Bumpy Booker
The Phoenix Suns have so many pressing issues right now that it’s easy to lose track of some of the simple stuff that has gone haywire. Coming into the season, when it was largely assumed that they would have an outstanding offense no matter what else happened, there was still concern about shot selection.
One of the reasons that the Suns struggled last season in the playoffs against the Denver Nuggets was that they faced a math problem. They were a team of elite shooters, but their best players were midrange assassins, not 3-point shooters.
That left them in a bad spot to beat the truly elite teams because not only could they pace them shot for shot, but they were being slowly broken by the simple 3>2 formula.
So, coming into the season the Suns made a big effort to up their 3-point rate, Devin Booker in particular seemed to take it to heart. But as the Suns' problems have grown, they’ve fallen back into their old habits.
Booker is now taking just 5.1 threes a game, the lowest mark since his rookie season. More of those are pull ups than in the past two, an indication that the offense itself isn’t generating these shots so much as Booker has to do it all on his own steam. That’s a hard way to make a living from the perimeter, particularly at low volume.
Book has hit a slump recently too, hitting just 20.7% from downtown over his last five games. He’s only hit two or more threes in one of his last six games. With the Charlotte Hornets' defense making attacking the rim so easy, I think getting plus money value on these Devin Booker odds is well worth the risk.
Devin Booker prop: Under 1.5 threes (+145 at bet365)
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