Nuggets vs Thunder Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight - NBA

We get treated to a terrific matchup of Western Conference contenders on Wednesday night when the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets visit the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder.

Unfortunately, it's not as great of a matchup as it could have been. Nikola Jokic, the favorite when it comes to NBA MVP odds, is out with a back injury. However, that doesn't change the fact that the winner of tonight’s game will sit in second place in the West.

So, how do you navigate the NBA odds for a game with one of the game's biggest stars sitting this one out? I break it all down and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Nuggets on Wednesday, January 31.

Nuggets vs Thunder odds

Nuggets vs Thunder predictions

If everyone was healthy, we may have been looking at one of the best matchups in the NBA so far this season. 

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter this game with a 32-15 record and in third place in the Western Conference, just a half-game behind the 33-15 Denver Nuggets. The game would also feature the top two names on the NBA MVP odds board, Nikola Jokic (-120) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+300).

Unfortunately, that’s not the case.

For the Thunder, Gilgeous-Alexander, stud rookie Chet Holmgren, and 3-D wing Lu Dort were all listed as questionable. Reports indicate that all three participated in the shootaround this afternoon and are “available” for this one. 

Meanwhile, there is only one notable name on the injury report for the Nuggets but it’s a big one. Jokic will miss this game with back issues. He has only missed one game all season, so for him to pop up on the injury report is a big deal. 

Obviously, not having Jokic changes the entire makeup of this Nuggets team but he’s missed his share of games the past few seasons. The thinking of the general public is that Jokic is out, fade the Nuggets. Well, let me stop you right there.

Last year Jokic missed 13 games. So, 14 games were missed over the last season and a half. Denver is a respectable 6-8 straight up and 9-5 against the spread. It’s not like this is some young Nuggets team. These are the reigning champs with a deep roster that includes Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. They aren’t just going to roll over here.

While the Thunder are really good, they still have to go through the growing pains any good young team does. Case in point, they were just outmuscled in their last game, losing 107-101 to the Western Conference-leading Minnesota Timberwolves.

I think the Nuggets will try to do what the T-wolves did. Slow the game down. Outrebound OKC and attack them on the perimeter. The Thunder, despite being an athletic team, rank 28th in rebounding rate, and allow the fifth most 3-point attempts per game.

While the Nuggets offense normally runs through Jokic, they still have enough playmakers to be effective and with Deandre Jordan stepping in, they should have no problem cleaning up the glass.

Once Jokic was announced to be out, this line reopened at OKC -5.5 and has been quickly bet to 6.5. This is too many points. I’ll take them with the undervalued Nuggets.

My best bet: Nuggets +6.5 (-108 at FanDuel) 30% boost available 

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Nuggets vs Thunder same-game parlay

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Nuggets +6.5

Aaron Gordon Over 7.5 rebounds

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 10.5 points

+498 at FanDuel

In addition to taking the Nuggets as 6.5-point underdogs, we are adding some complimentary pieces to pitch in. 

With no Jokic, guys will have to step up when it comes to cleaning the glass for the Nuggets, and with the Thunder being a poor rebounding team, I think there are some opportunities for some Denver players. If anyone posts a Deandre Jordan rebounding prop I’ll be all over that. In lieu, of that, let’s add Aaron Gordon Over 7.5 rebounds.

Gordon already averages 6.5 rebounds per game this season and he’s gone for eight or more boards six times in the last 15 games. All with Jokic on the court. 

Now, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Gordon have all seen their points prop adjusted in Jokic’s absence. But one Nuggets starter hasn’t seen that adjustment. And that is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. KCP is averaging 10.1 points per Game this season and his point total has closed at 9.5 or 10.5 in each of his last 10 Games. Five times at 10.5. His point total tonight? 10.5. 

Take him to go Over 10.5 points in a game where he gets a decent matchup and he should see a few more touches.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Nuggets vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis

The line for this Western Conference clash when everyone was still questionable was Denver -1. But with Nikola Jokic out the spread quickly adjusted to Nuggets +5.5. That number did not last long, however, and Denver is now a 6.5-point underdog as of Wednesday afternoon. I broke down why I’m taking the points with the Nuggets above.

The total has also seen an adjustment. That opened at 228 and has been moved to 224.5. Thanks to a dynamic offense with Jokic and an underrated defense, the Nuggets have been one of the best Under teams in basketball going 17-30-1 Over/Under.

OKC is also an excellent defensive team, ranking fourth in defensive rating. With no Jokic it’s hard to see these teams going Over this number. I would lean Under even at the adjusted total.

Nuggets vs Thunder betting trend to know

The Nuggets are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games without Nikola Jokic. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Thunder.

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Nuggets vs Thunder game info

Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Date: Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports OK, Altitude
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